In October 2017, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) made a shocking announcement. Pacific cod (or grey cod) stocks in the Gulf of Alaska had declined 71% since 2015 and 83% since 2013. Cod, once one of the most plentiful fish in Alaskan waters, suddenly became a rare catch, devastating one of the most lucrative commercial fisheries in the state. Biologists scrambled to learn why cod were dying and why the few cod caught weighed less than normal and appeared malnourished.

While researchers yet do not have empirical evidence to support their theory, they have a good idea why cod populations have crashed. During the winter of 2013/2014, scientists mapped an unusually warm, large, circular body of seawater in the North Pacific Ocean. This mass of water didn’t cool as winter progressed but instead hovered several degrees above the normal winter temperature. Scientists nicknamed the mass of warm water the “Blob.” In February 2014, the Blob remained 4.5° F (2.5°C) warmer than the average February ocean temperature.

Warm water temperatures persisted throughout 2014, and oceanographers noted these were the warmest temperatures ever measured in the North Pacific Ocean since climatologists began recording ocean temperatures. Along with these warm water temperatures, a static high-pressure region in the atmosphere persisted throughout much of 2014, resulting in a lack of the normal wind-generated currents that stir the surface waters of the North Pacific.

This warm, calm mass of water produced far-reaching effects on the biology of the North Pacific. Without an upwelling of cooler water and nutrients, the surface waters of the warm Blob became stagnant, resulting in reduced phytoplankton production. Phytoplankton is the platform for the ocean food pyramid, and without a healthy supply of phytoplankton, the pyramid collapses. Zooplankton can’t survive unless they have phytoplankton to eat, and without zooplankton, many fish species, including the juveniles of most species, will starve. Plankton-eating fish provide the food supply for larger fish, and all fish, mammals, and birds dependent on marine life to survive will suffer from a reduction in phytoplankton productivity.

A lack of food was not the only problem Pacific cod faced, though. The increased ocean temperatures raised their metabolism while reducing the available food. With less food, the average size of the cod dropped. A 2015 NOAA survey showed cod were the skinniest ever recorded, and at this same time, mortality rates skyrocketed for the younger age classes of cod, an indication the cod population would not recover for many years. The warm water and lack of nutrients also negatively affected cod egg production.

Will the Pacific grey cod recover? Biologists don’t know the answer to this question, but even if cod populations begin to recover now, they will not be commercially viable until at least 2021. The crash of the cod fishery has had a negative impact on the economies of Alaska fishing ports, and the decline of cod is certain to impact the food web of the North Pacific.

Robin Barefield is the author of three Alaska wilderness mystery novels, Big Game, Murder Over Kodiak, and The Fisherman’s Daughter. To download a free copy of one of her novels, watch her webinar about how she became an author and why she writes Alaska wilderness mysteries. If you like audiobooks, check out her audiobook version of Murder Over Kodiak. Also, sign up below to subscribe to her free, monthly newsletter on true murder and mystery in Alaska.